Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has has something to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
